Epic Games has finally addressed the Fortnite Pirate Shop token drop rate, but it still hasn’t revealed the actual odds. The official Fortnite Status account said on November 3 that every player has an equal opportunity to find Pirate Shop Access. However, that doesn’t explain the 1 in 700,000 figure that has been circulating online since Treasure Hunters launched.
According to Hypex, the most popular Fortnite leaker, the real odds aren’t in the game files, so any number you see online is fake, including the 700,000 one. Until Epic shares the official numbers, every drop rate is a guess. The most detailed one comes from Blortzen on X, who estimated the odds from his own statistics and openly admits his math can be wrong.
Fortnite Pirate Shop token drop rate estimate is 1 in 2,000
According to Blortzen, every chest you open in Fortnite Battle Royale has roughly a 1% chance to roll a Treasure Hunt prize. When that happens, the game picks one of three reward tiers, and every item within the same tier has an equal chance of dropping.
Here is how his estimate breaks down:
| Tier | Rewards | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | Sprite Locator, Lucky Locator, Golden Firework, Extraction Accelerator, Portable Extractor | 60% to 70% |
| Major | Weekly cosmetics, such as Solid Gold A$AP Rocky’s Gauntlets and the Mercedes-AMG G 63 ‘G-Wagon’ in Week 1 | 20% to 25% |
| Supreme | Pirate Shop Access and the weekly gold skin (Solid Gold A$AP Rocky in Week 1, Solid Gold Lil Uzi Vert in Week 2) | 5% to 10% |
Blortzen believes the Supreme tier sits closer to 10%, which makes any Supreme reward a 1 in 1,000 chance per chest. As the Pirate Shop token shares that tier with one gold skin each week, the token itself works out to about 1 in 2,000. To put this into perspective, a 1 in 700,000 chance would make the token 350 times rarer than his estimate.
Interestingly, Major and Supreme rewards can’t repeat, but the tier chances never drop. Due to this, owning the current week’s gold skin leaves the token as your only Supreme reward, which doubles your odds to about 1 in 1,000. Only the Standard rewards can drop over and over again.
That said, the estimate isn’t perfect, and it can’t be confirmed while the odds stay out of the game files. His post lists the Standard tier at 60% but his infographic shows 70%, and a 5% Supreme tier would push the token to 1 in 4,000. Still, it’s the only estimate that explains its math, which makes it a much better guide than a number with nothing behind it.
It’s important to note that 1 in 2,000 is an average, not a guarantee.
Epic says every player has an equal opportunity to find Pirate Shop Access
Epic’s statement came in a reply to Pirat_Nation, which reported that the Pirate Shop hunt had turned into a small black market. According to that post, players are offering paid carries, using AFK farming tools and even trying to sell accounts for $10,000. The Fortnite Status account replied that buying an account or using fake tools is a scam, as the token works just like any other Battle Royale chest.
In other words, Epic says there is no paid shortcut or hidden boost behind the token, as every chest follows the same rules for every player. “This is just like any of the chests in Battle Royale, so every player has an equal opportunity to find Pirate Shop Access,” the account posted.
This lines up with Hypex’s claim that there doesn’t seem to be a skill-based matchmaking check, as some pro and ranked players have already found it. If Blortzen’s theory is correct, the only difference comes from your Locker, as players who own the weekly gold skin would have better odds of finding the token.
Unfortunately, the statement didn’t convince everyone, as a reply with around 2,000 likes simply asked Epic, “Are you sure…?” Other players asked Epic to at least share the odds, which is a fair request for a reward this valuable. Back in 2019, Epic even replaced Save the World’s paid llamas with X-Ray Llamas that reveal their contents before purchase.
Epic’s answer isn’t wrong, but it’s far from the answer players were hoping for.
How to get the Pirate Shop token in Fortnite faster
Hypex confirmed that you can get the Pirate Shop token just by breaking chests, so destroying one counts as well as opening it. In Battle Royale and Zero Build, the token can drop from almost every chest type on Crossbones Isle, including:
- Regular and Rare Chests
- Sprite Chests
- Buried Chests
- Wanted Poster Chests
- Relic Chests
The best thing you can do is play Squads, as everyone in the squad gets the token when one teammate finds it. On top of this, a full squad gets four times as many rolls, which makes solo the worst way to hunt for it.
However, stay away from anyone selling a faster way to get the token. Hypex warned that using tools or teaming with cheaters to farm it will get you banned, and Epic has already called these tools a scam. The token is also tied to the account that finds it, so buying one means paying for someone else’s account. Losing your whole Locker over 14 days of free skins would be a terrible trade.
The grind is worth it, as a single drop gives you two tokens, one for 2026 and one for 2027. Each token activates the Fortnite Pirate Shop for 14 days of free Item Shop claims, and everything you claim stays in your Locker. Considering that Epic cut the cheapest V-Bucks pack to 800 V-Bucks back in March, two free weeks of the Item Shop are worth more than ever.
The token is set to stay in the reward pool all season, but the cosmetics next to it change weekly, from A$AP Rocky to Lil Uzi Vert. Don’t wait too long to use it, though, as the 2026 token has to be activated by December 15, 2026. The 2027 token can be activated between January 1 and December 15, 2027.
While you hunt for the token, level up with the best Fortnite XP maps for the One Piece season. In addition to this, make sure to claim every free Fortnite skin that is currently available.
Frequently asked questions
Epic Games hasn’t shared the odds, and Hypex confirmed they aren’t in the game files. The best community estimate is about 1 in 2,000 chests, or 1 in 1,000 if you already own the current week’s gold skin.
No, the real odds of the Pirate Shop Token can’t be found in the game files, so any number you see online, including 1 in 700,000, is fake.
Yes, according to Epic Games. The Fortnite Status account said the token works like any other Battle Royale chest, so every player has an equal opportunity to find it.
No. Epic says buying an account or using fake tools to get Pirate Shop Access is a scam, and the token stays on the account that found it.
Yes. If anyone in your Fortnite squad finds the token, every teammate gets it as well, including random teammates in Squad Fills.
Each token lasts 14 days after you activate it. You need to activate the 2026 token by December 15, 2026, and the 2027 token between January 1 and December 15, 2027.
